Dana Point, California 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

159
FXUS66 KSGX 170538
AFDSGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Diego CA
938 PM PST Mon Feb 16 2026

.SYNOPSIS...
Periods of rain, wind, and mountain snow are expected through
the week. There is a slight chance of thunderstorms through
early Tuesday morning. Scattered showers will continue into
Tuesday with strengthening west winds along the mountain crests
and desert slopes, which peak Tuesday evening into Wednesday
morning. A second round of rain and lower elevation mountain snow
is expected late Tuesday into Wednesday. Cool with decreasing
chances for showers for Thursday through Saturday. Chances of
precipitation increase again into early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

Key Points:

* A winter storm will bring widespread heavy snow to the
  mountains above 5500 ft creating hazardous travel conditions
  through Thursday. Snow levels as low as 3500 to 4000 ft
  Wednesday into Thursday may result in light accumulations
  through the Cajon Pass and along I-8.

* Stronger and potentially damaging west winds along the mountain
  crests and adjacent desert slopes Tuesday afternoon through
  Wednesday. Breezy conditions west of the mountains Tuesday night
  into Wednesday morning and wet soil will increase the risk of
  uprooted trees.

* Ponding of water on roads and minor street flooding in urban
  areas possible this evening and again Tuesday night. Increased
  flows on rivers, especially the San Diego, Santa Margarita, and
  Santa Ana Rivers.

Evening update...

Scattered light showers continue tonight with a slight chance of
thunderstorms, which could produce very localized brief heavier
rainfall and small hail. Snow levels are currently around
5500-6000 ft and are forecast to fall to around 4700-5300 ft by
Tuesday morning. An additional 3-6" of snow is possible above 6000
ft, and around 1-3" above 5000 ft. Rainfall amounts will range
from around 0.10-0.30" west of the mountains overnight, with
around 0.15" or less in the deserts. The Wind Advisory for the
coastal areas, valleys, and high desert expire this evening, but
will be in effect again Tuesday afternoon/evening into Wednesday
morning/afternoon.

Previous discussion...
The next shortwave is still on track to bring additional rounds of
widespread rain, winds, and continued mountain snow Tuesday
afternoon into Wednesday morning. Winds are expected to be
stronger with this round shortwave for the mountain ridges and
desert mountains slopes with gusts to 60 to 70 mph, potentially
higher in wind prone locations. For the coast and valleys, peak
gusts of 30 to 45 mph are expected and in the deserts gusts of 50
to 60 mph.

There will be lower chances for mostly lighter showers for
Thursday into Friday. Chances for precipitation for next weekend
are 10 to 15 percent, increasing to 20 percent for Sunday. High
temperatures will warm slightly for Thursday and Friday, then
gradually warm for Saturday through Monday with Monday high
temperatures a few to around 5 degrees above average. High
temperatures for next Monday will range from the mid to upper 60s
near the coast to the lower to mid 70s for the valleys with the
lower deserts around 80.


&&

.AVIATION...
170600Z...Coast and Valleys...On and off post frontal showers remain
possible through the overnight hours, eventually become much less
numerous late Tuesday morning. Outside any precipitation, VFR
conditions will generally prevail, with multiple clouds decks: a FEW-
SCT deck around 2000-3000ft MSL and a more defined BKN deck around
3500-5000ft MSL. With any showers that pass through, VIS may briefly
fall to 1-5 SM, with CIGs anywhere from 1500-2500ft MSL. A brief
lull in shower activity is expected from 21z-03z Wednesday before
shower activity returns to the region.

Mountains/Deserts...Cloud obscurations in the mountains and VIS
reduced to 0-2SM as on and off SHRA/SHSN continues to move through.
Shower activity should gradually wane after 12-15z. Southwest wind
gusts of 20-30 kts with gusts up to 40 kts remain possible overnight
tonight into Tuesday morning. Gusts gradually increase through
Tuesday afternoon, with gusts 50-65+ kts expected for mountain peaks
and desert mountain slopes after 00z Wednesday.

&&

.MARINE...
A bulk of the winds seen earlier today before the front have
decreased this evening, with gusts generally 15-20 kts persisting
over the waters. However, scattered showers are bringing down
occasional gusts near 25-30 kts. With this, the Gale Warning remains
in effect until 7 AM Tuesday morning, when shower activity becomes
less numerous and winds stay below 20 kts.

After a brief lull in unsettled weather around mid-day Tuesday, come
late Tuesday night, seas are expected to build to around 8-11 feet
with wind gusts 25-35 knots, locally up to 40 knots. A second Gale
Warning is in effect from 8 PM Tuesday until 1 PM Wednesday and
contains more details. Seas and winds decrease to 5-7 feet and 10-27
kts Wednesday afternoon, but look to increase again come Thursday
afternoon.

&&

.BEACHES...
A series of strong westerly swell (9-11 feet with an average period
of about 10-12 seconds) will produce large breaking waves up to 8-12
feet on most beaches across Orange and San Diego Counties through
Friday night. Widespread, strong rip currents are also likely with
these waves and dangerous swimming conditions expected. A High Surf
Advisory is in effect until 10 PM Friday and contains more
details.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Scattered showers with rainfall rates up to 0.30" per hour
tonight into Tuesday morning. Isolated lighter showers will
continue into Tuesday afternoon, with the highest chances of
precipitation in the mountains.

Another round of rain and mountain snow is expected Tuesday night
into Wednesday. Hourly rainfall rates are expected to be 0.20-0.30"
per hour. Forecast rainfall totals for Tuesday into Wednesday are
0.30-0.60" for the coast and valleys, 0.20-0.40" for the High
Desert, and 0.05-0.45" for the low deserts, highest near the
foothills. 1-2" of rain are expected in the mountains below the
snow level Tuesday night into Wednesday. For Tuesday into
Wednesday snow forecast has an additional 4-8" 5000-6000 ft,
8-15" 6000-7000 ft, and up to 2 ft above 7000 ft. The San Diego
County mountains may see some accumulating snow above 5000 ft,
with totals of 3-5", locally higher at the highest peaks.

The San Diego River at Fashion Valley and the Santa Margarita river
are expected to reach monitor stage. The San Diego River is expected
to reach monitor stage by 10 PM. The Santa Margarita River is
expected to start responding tonight/early Tuesday morning, but is
not expected to reach monitor stage until Wednesday. Interested
parties should continue to closely monitor the river forecast and
observed river levels this week. Current forecast indicates minor
flood impacts to Avenida del Rio may occur. Please see the latest
River Statement or CNRFC website for more information.

Scattered light rain and snow showers are possible Wednesday
afternoon into Thursday as a third shortwave moves north of the
area. Snow levels for Wednesday and Thursday are expected to be
3500-4000 ft so if any snow showers develop accumulating snow
could impact the Cajon Pass and along higher portions of I-8.

There remains slight chances of precipitation Friday through the
weekend ahead of the next trough set developing over the Gulf of
Alaska. There remains considerable uncertainty in the details of the
forecast but periods of unsettled weather looks possible next
week.

&&

.SKYWARN...
Skywarn activation is not requested. However weather spotters are
encouraged to report significant weather conditions.


&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...High Surf Advisory until 10 PM PST Friday for Orange County
     Coastal Areas-San Diego County Coastal Areas.

     Wind Advisory from 8 PM Tuesday to 8 AM PST Wednesday for Orange
     County Coastal Areas-Orange County Inland Areas-San
     Bernardino and Riverside County Valleys-The Inland Empire-
     San Diego County Coastal Areas-San Diego County Valleys-
     Santa Ana Mountains and Foothills.

     Winter Storm Warning until noon PST Wednesday for Riverside
     County Mountains-San Bernardino County Mountains.

     Wind Advisory until 1 AM PST Tuesday for San Diego County
     Deserts-San Diego County Mountains-San Gorgonio Pass near
     Banning.

     Wind Advisory from 10 AM Tuesday to 4 PM PST Wednesday for Apple
     and Lucerne Valleys-San Diego County Deserts-San Diego
     County Mountains-San Gorgonio Pass near Banning.


PZ...Gale Warning until 7 AM PST Tuesday for Coastal Waters from San
     Mateo Point to the Mexican Border and out to 10 nm-Waters
     from San Mateo Point to the Mexican Border Extending 10 to
     60 nm out including San Clemente Island.

     Gale Warning from 8 PM Tuesday to 1 PM PST Wednesday for Coastal
     Waters from San Mateo Point to the Mexican Border and out
     to 10 nm-Waters from San Mateo Point to the Mexican Border
     Extending 10 to 60 nm out including San Clemente Island.


&&

$$

PUBLIC...SS/CO
HYDROLOGY...SS
AVIATION/MARINE/BEACHES...Munyan